More and more people are choosing to live and work outside of the country that they were born. In the last two decades the UK has seen a steady flow of migrants despite a sharp decline after the Brexit vote, which was in large part offset by an increase in non-EU migration. This migration has of course had an impact on the UK in terms of its overall population, its economic growth, wages, tax revenue and even productivity. But has that impact been a positive one?
Trends of international migration
Although international migration is difficult to predict due to its constantly evolving nature, we can get a good idea of where it might go, based on where it has been and how it has changed over time. By understanding this we can see trends and make some predictions for the future. Looking at this interesting infographic, here are the main migration trends:
- In 2020, 3.6% of the global population were immigrants, historically this is the highest number of international migrants we have ever seen. This was a 3.2% increase from a decade before.
- Migrants are more likely to move to a high-income country, like the UK, US or Europe, because of these countries stronger economies and stability.
- Northern America and Europe send the most people to work abroad, but they also have the highest number of migrants.
- In 2019 almost 6.1 million students were studying outside of the country they were born in.
Looking at the trends in this infographic, we can see that nearly 60 million people have become migrants in the last 10 years. The number of migrants is increasing every year and this is a trend that is unlikely to change. Reasons for migration include labour and family migration, as well as migration for education and/or, work experience.
The impact of migration on the UK economy
This increase in migration impacts the economy in a number of ways:
- Increase in labour. Although migrants can bring dependents with them, there is more chance that the migrants will be of a working age. This increases the labour force within the UK and in turn increases the potential output capacity of the UK economy as a whole.
- Aggregate demand. Migrants will increase spending within the UK which will lead to an increase in the demand for labour.
- Increased flexibility in the labour market. With more migrants the UK labour market could become more flexible. In fact, the government has actively tried to attract migrants to meet shortfalls in job vacancies in public sectors, the perfect example is nursing.
- Better dependency ratio. As the UK population continues to age, we expect to see an increase in the dependency ratio (i.e. the number of adults versus the number of dependents). However, migrants are typically of a working age, therefore they should help to improve the dependency ratio, bringing it back down.
- Technological advances. Migration enhances innovation and spurs on technological advances.
- Increase in population, congestion and urban pollution. The UK faces an acute housing shortage, but is reluctant to continue building housing on green belt land, which is becoming scarce in the UK. An increase in migration will lead to an increase in population and this cause increase congestion and urban pollution.
- Reduces pressure on government debt. As more migrants are likely to be of working age and can therefore bring more taxes and financial contributions into the country, this will help to reduce pressure on government debts. Following the pandemic, relieving government debt is more crucial than ever before.
Migration misconceptions
One of the most common misconceptions is that migrants are attracted to the UK because the appealing benefits the government offers. This leads to another misconception that the more migrants we allow into the country the more people we have to support. However, this is not the case. Actually, migrants contribute more in taxes and social contributions than they receive in benefits.
Another misconception is that “migrants are coming over here and taking our jobs”, this is not the case. Migrants might provide labour (creating the image that they are taking our jobs), but they are also putting more money into the economy, therefore increasing the demand for labour. They aren’t taking our jobs, so much as creating more job opportunities.
More misconceptions that simply aren’t true include:
- They don’t integrate with us. This is not the case, they do attempt to integrate, it is just much more difficult for them to do it.
- They’re here illegally. The UK has strict passport checks and processes for VISA’s etc. it is very difficult to come to the UK illegally.
- Immigrants bring crime. Crime statistics do not show increased crime when a migrant joins a community.
- They won’ learn our language. Actually, most of the migrants who come to the UK speak English very well.
- Hospitals and schools will be overrun. As more migrants bring money into the UK economy in taxes and contributions, the government will be able to spend more on education and health, increasing resources for schools and hospitals.
